The Truth Behind the Numbers : Rotobuzz
By boz On 2008年3月18日星期二 At 16:05
The Truth Behind the Numbers
Posted on February 14, 2008Filed Under Blog-Keith |
?? Trading is the lifeblood of fantasy fanatics.? Seldom is there a day that goes by without a new idea for a deal or some different player to target.? Don’t worry guys, you aren’t the only one.? To all you geeks out there, how often have you heard this when offering a player; “But look at his stats last year, they suck”.? Or perhaps you have heard a similar tune when being offered a player; “Look what he did last year, he’s a stud”.? Stats are powerful evidence, but they can’t be looked at in a vacuum.? There are situational factors on which the repeated production of those stats depend.? In the end, you have a complex formula of stats and situations that renders a value for each player.? What good is that player you are being offered going to do you if he doesn’t get a full season of at-bats?? Often times GMs in your league that aren’t as involved (or obsessed) with their fantasy teams don’t really understand the context surrounding the stats.? It isn’t their fault that they don’t eat, drink, and sleep fantasy baseball.? And for those of you?out there reading this that aren’t the total fantasy geek, pay attention to some of these factors, cause they will help you understand the numbers and therefore your team better.
Track Record:? Perhaps the most important factor in a decision.? The track record that a player has established can serve to produce an expectation of a certain level of play.? It is this baseline for?comparison?that will help you decide if the player that had a down year is going to rebound or continue on a decline.? Was that great year your player just had a continuation of year to year improvement or was it an aberration not likely to be repeated?? These are questions that the track record can help you answer.? Likewise, a lack of a track record usually implies uncertainty of what to expect.? That young stud that you drafted last year with great results may eventually go on to be great, but he could just as easily regress.? “Sophomore Slump” is a cliche for a reason.?
Playing Time:? As our newest writer, Mike DiDomenico pointed out in his article The Genius Effect, playing time is a very precious commodity.? All the talent in the world isn’t going to do a player any good at all if he doesn’t get the chance to play.? Understanding this will go a long way to helping you understand the big picture behind the numbers that the player either did or didn’t produce.? Waiting for players being used in a platoon,?trapped behind superstars, or vultures in the bullpen can pay off huge, but more likely than not, the status quo will remain.? Here are some examples of players that will be drafted, but may have a problem getting a full season of at-bats.? Examples:?? Jacoby Ellsbury, Marcus Giles, Evan Longoria, Joe Crede, Jack Cust, Jerry Owens, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto.
Injury History-? Ugh.? I hate this one.? Some players can’t shake the injury bug.? They return to the trainers table like lemmings to a cliff.? The question is, do you want to jump in with them?? The important thing to do with players that are starting to fall into this category is?research what their injuries have been.? Pulls, strains, and tears are things that should give prospective owners pause.? Breaks and injuries caused by hard play are things that can be called isolated and shouldn’t set off alarms.? So next time you are shopping around a guy?that broke a bone that put him out for a month or two, it will help to point this out to your buyer.? Examples of players with actual injury problems.? Examples:? Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd, Rich Harden, Mark Prior (duh), Ryan Doumit, Troy Glaus, J.D. Drew, Ken Griffey Jr., Ben Sheets.
These are just three of the important factors that should go into your evaluations of players.? Not just in trades, but in the draft/auction as well.? It does help, however, to be able to point out these specific situations to your fellow GMs in the attempt to win them over.? Evidence is great, but evidence with circumstances as well can sway even the most stubborn of GMs.
Posted on February 14, 2008Filed Under Blog-Keith |
?? Trading is the lifeblood of fantasy fanatics.? Seldom is there a day that goes by without a new idea for a deal or some different player to target.? Don’t worry guys, you aren’t the only one.? To all you geeks out there, how often have you heard this when offering a player; “But look at his stats last year, they suck”.? Or perhaps you have heard a similar tune when being offered a player; “Look what he did last year, he’s a stud”.? Stats are powerful evidence, but they can’t be looked at in a vacuum.? There are situational factors on which the repeated production of those stats depend.? In the end, you have a complex formula of stats and situations that renders a value for each player.? What good is that player you are being offered going to do you if he doesn’t get a full season of at-bats?? Often times GMs in your league that aren’t as involved (or obsessed) with their fantasy teams don’t really understand the context surrounding the stats.? It isn’t their fault that they don’t eat, drink, and sleep fantasy baseball.? And for those of you?out there reading this that aren’t the total fantasy geek, pay attention to some of these factors, cause they will help you understand the numbers and therefore your team better.
Track Record:? Perhaps the most important factor in a decision.? The track record that a player has established can serve to produce an expectation of a certain level of play.? It is this baseline for?comparison?that will help you decide if the player that had a down year is going to rebound or continue on a decline.? Was that great year your player just had a continuation of year to year improvement or was it an aberration not likely to be repeated?? These are questions that the track record can help you answer.? Likewise, a lack of a track record usually implies uncertainty of what to expect.? That young stud that you drafted last year with great results may eventually go on to be great, but he could just as easily regress.? “Sophomore Slump” is a cliche for a reason.?
Playing Time:? As our newest writer, Mike DiDomenico pointed out in his article The Genius Effect, playing time is a very precious commodity.? All the talent in the world isn’t going to do a player any good at all if he doesn’t get the chance to play.? Understanding this will go a long way to helping you understand the big picture behind the numbers that the player either did or didn’t produce.? Waiting for players being used in a platoon,?trapped behind superstars, or vultures in the bullpen can pay off huge, but more likely than not, the status quo will remain.? Here are some examples of players that will be drafted, but may have a problem getting a full season of at-bats.? Examples:?? Jacoby Ellsbury, Marcus Giles, Evan Longoria, Joe Crede, Jack Cust, Jerry Owens, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto.
Injury History-? Ugh.? I hate this one.? Some players can’t shake the injury bug.? They return to the trainers table like lemmings to a cliff.? The question is, do you want to jump in with them?? The important thing to do with players that are starting to fall into this category is?research what their injuries have been.? Pulls, strains, and tears are things that should give prospective owners pause.? Breaks and injuries caused by hard play are things that can be called isolated and shouldn’t set off alarms.? So next time you are shopping around a guy?that broke a bone that put him out for a month or two, it will help to point this out to your buyer.? Examples of players with actual injury problems.? Examples:? Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd, Rich Harden, Mark Prior (duh), Ryan Doumit, Troy Glaus, J.D. Drew, Ken Griffey Jr., Ben Sheets.
These are just three of the important factors that should go into your evaluations of players.? Not just in trades, but in the draft/auction as well.? It does help, however, to be able to point out these specific situations to your fellow GMs in the attempt to win them over.? Evidence is great, but evidence with circumstances as well can sway even the most stubborn of GMs.
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