February 19th, 2008 Posted in Forex News

The USD came under pressure o/n with the AUD, NZD and European FX rates ticking higher. The break in the AUD through 0.91 is putting 0.92 to the test with 0.94 at risk for new all time highs here. The NZD is tagging along, with 0.80 in the sights then up to 0.81 for new cycle highs being the risk here. The strong commodity FX rates are still beating up on GBP, with GBP/AUD approaching the key 2.1140 low o/n, a turn through here leaving 2.10 for 2.00 exposed. While the GBP is clearly very cheap at current levels, the trend risk is that it gets cheaper… Vs. the USD Cable should be able to clamber back to $1.96 on a range trade today, some potential higher if GBP does start to find its feet elsewhere. EUR/GBP is at key levels with the turn above 0.75 extending o/n, 0.7550/60 at risk for 0.76 next. The GBP seems way too weak here and the NRK nationalization is simply doing aboveboard what the German gov’t (and other European gov’ts) have been doing for a while, shoring up bad banks with public funds. For choice, favoring pullbacks to 0.75 and then 0.74 in the cross, see if the current upmove can be weathered though. The EUR/USD risk is back to pressing higher, sustained pressure above $1.4740 would leave $1.48 open for $1.4950/1.50, then up and running to $1.60 and higher. Still not favored, but pushing back through $1.47 today will be key to take some pressure off the upside, then 1.4600 etc. In the yen? Flat lining on the USD, soft on some commodity and EUR crosses. Favoring 107.50/00 holding on the USD for 109 and then 112 but… Data today is light, see if the USD can find bottom fishing friends else the lead of the commodity FX rates will suggest tough times ahead for the greenback.

标签： commodity trading